Then vs. Now

Investors could be forgiven for having flashbacks this week to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Phrases like “turmoil among banks” and “regulators intervening” have a way of doing that for many of us. But current market data shows no expectation of repeating the stock market upheaval experienced in 2008 – or even 2020 for that matter. The VIX index, a widely referenced measure of US stock market volatility, closed at a little over 19 on March 29. This magnitude falls short of the conventional threshold, around 30, for elevated volatility expectations and far below levels reached during the GFC or the COVID-fueled market downturn in 2020.

While Philadelphia Phillies fans may yearn for aspects of 2008 to return, financial markets do not appear at this time to be expecting a repeat of that year’s tumult.