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U.S. economy



Markets gifted us with another burst of volatility and headlines are looking apocalyptic again.  Some folks might think it's time to bail on markets for the summer, but I'll tell you why that thinking is a mistake.

First, let's peel back some layers to explore what's driving markets. (Want to discuss any concerns directly? Just click this  link  and let me know.) The latest selloff was largely driven by concerns about how the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could affect economic growth. The Fed's "hawkish" policy of rapidly rising interest rates to bring down inflation seems likely to take a chunk out of economic growth.

Is a recession or bear market on the way?  Those are risks we are prepared for.

Unemployment Rate and Recessions Over 70 Years

The unemployment rate has a large impact on whether U.S. economists determine the country is in recession.

In fact, in recent decades, levels of employment and real personal income are two measures that carry the most weight when a recession is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Unemployment Rate and Recessions