One of the reasons why Fed watching is an unreliable input into investment decisions is because the Fed’s expected actions are already reflected in market prices. By the time the Fed executes rate changes, markets have already had time to form an expectation and may not need to react any further.
It’s also important to note there’s variation in market interest rates that is unrelated to changes in the Fed funds rate. For example, the Fed’s target range has remained constant over the past year. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated over this period, falling in the last quarter of 2023 before rising again this year.
This is a good example of why it’s hard for investors to draw actionable conclusions from Fed watching. The returns on your bond portfolio are likely not that closely correlated with the Fed funds rate. And unless you looked up future Treasury yields while out in your DeLorean, it's unlikely you will be able to consistently outperform markets through interest rate predictions.
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Dimensional Founder and Chairman David Booth recently contributed an op-ed to Fortune about the role uncertainty can play in investment success. Click continue reading to view the op-ed.
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Russell’s annual reconstitution took place last week, and one of the notable additions to the Russell 3000 Index was Dell. Some investors may be confused as to why the stock of a company with a household name and a $98 billion market value was not already part of this broad US stock market index. Dell was dropped from the index during the 2023 reconstitution due to Russell’s eligibility rules. Its reinstatement in 2024 signals it once again checks the box for inclusion.
Russell 3000 Index fund investors may be more interested in Dell’s performance during its one-year exile. During the stretch between Russell’s 2023 and 2024 reconstitution events, Dell’s stock posted a cumulative total return of 177.5%—more than seven times higher than the Russell 3000 Index.
This is another example highlighting how index rules and procedures can drive a wedge between what the market offers and what index fund investors receive, particularly if the process is conducted only once a year, as is the case for Russell indices.
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Whether you’ve been investing for decades or are just getting started, at some point you’ll likely ask yourself some fundamental questions. The 10 listed here highlight key principles, backed by data and common sense, that can help improve your odds of investment success.
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Many investors view government debt as a concern for future market returns. The long-run data suggest country debt-to-GDP has not been correlated with stock market returns. This is likely because debt tends to be a slow-moving variable that investors can observe and account for when setting prices. Markets do not react to circumstances; they react to news. If the government debt is not news, it’s unsurprising it’s not a headwind to stock markets.
Sometimes, however, markets are greeted with news about a government’s fiscal outlook. France’s President Macron recently called for a snap, or unscheduled, parliamentary election. This election opens the door to policy changes that would substantially increase government spending deficits. In the span of just a few days, the cost of sovereign debt relative to peers—represented by the yield spread between French and German bond yields—increased by more than half, from 0.49% to over 0.75% by June 18.
Markets continuously and instantaneously process new information. That’s what makes them so difficult to outguess. But investors can take comfort in the forward-looking nature of markets. Once changes in circumstances are reflected in prices, investors should expect positive returns, regardless of the outcome of elections.
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