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Reality Meets Expectation for the Magnificent 7

It is unlikely any stock has an expected return of 100%. That seems too high to be the cost of equity capital for a company, and it’s doubtful anyone would sell a stock with an expected return ten times higher than the historical stock market return. A realized return that big likely means the company surprised investors in a good way.

The Magnificent 7 stocks returned on average more than 111% in 2023, exceeding the S&P 500 Index by over 85 percentage points. While it’s hard to say what cashflow expectations were built into their stock prices, comparing analyst earnings estimates to actual earnings suggests these companies exceeded expectations for the year. All seven reported earnings exceeding average forecasts. For example, Nvidia posted an earnings per share 37.4% higher than the average analyst expectation. Contrast this with 2022, when five of the seven companies’ earnings fell short of analyst expectations. The average Magnificent 7 stock return that year trailed the S&P 500 Index by 28 percentage points.

Expecting Mag 7 outperformance to continue is to bet on these companies further exceeding the market’s expectations. Simply meeting expectations may result in returns more in line with the market, consistent with the history of top US stocks.

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Indices Acting Active: Index Decisions May Be More Active than You Think

Index funds are widely viewed as a way for investors to achieve broad, passive exposure to certain markets or asset classes. However, index fund investors may overlook the fact that the creation and maintenance of an index fund entails numerous active decisions. In practice, index providers make many choices that have important implications for the characteristics and returns of the benchmarks they produce. As with any investment strategy, it is imperative for investors in index funds to evaluate whether these choices align with and serve their investment objectives.

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The Three Most Common Investing Mistakes

Many people start out managing their own investments. But as their earnings and assets grow, their financial needs and challenges become more complex—and continuing to go it alone could prove costly in terms of investing miscues. Consider three common mistakes that can reduce returns and increase anxiety:

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The Opportunity Cost of Holding Cash

Holding cash may seem like a safe harbor in the financial markets, providing liquidity and peace of mind. However, this comfort comes with a hidden price – the potential growth you miss out on when your money isn't working for you. With each passing day, your cash reserves could be foregoing valuable opportunities to earn interest, dividends, and capital gains. Over the long run, money market funds (a proxy for cash) have underperformed other fixed-income allocations. Even short-term fixed-income treasury notes have outperformed cash over the long run.

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Does [fill in the blank] Belong in My Portfolio?

Financial innovation provides investors with a seemingly endless supply of new investment options. But the process of evaluating the merits of these investments remains the same even as the names change. Adopting a new component in one’s asset allocation represents a tradeoff that should carefully balance the expected benefit vs. the cost of its inclusion. The following framework highlights benefits investors may seek as well as potential drawbacks—a checklist that applies to any investment opportunity.

Properly evaluating whether something belongs in your portfolio begins with specifying the role it is expected to play. These roles come down to a) increasing your expected return or b) helping manage risk.

If the objective is to increase expected returns, what is the case for the asset in question accomplishing that? It is easy to link a positive expected return with equities, for example, as stock ownership gives you a claim on companies’ future cash flows. Similarly, bondholders expect to receive periodic interest payments and the return of their principal as stipulated in the bond’s covenant. But an asset that lacks a sound foundation for delivering a positive expected return should give investors pause, regardless of its past performance.

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