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Roth IRAs: The Intriguing Mathematics For High-Wealth Taxpayers

 Benjamin Franklin famously observed, “The only two things you can count on in life are death and taxes.” To which an unknown wag offered the sardonic and almost equally famous rejoinder, “That may be true, but at least death doesn’t get worse every time Congress reconvenes.”

Let’s start by belaboring the obvious and note that high taxation makes it challenging to create and accumulate wealth. Sure, everyone should contribute a fair amount toward the functions of government, but even most patriotic Americans could feel just as patriotic while paying a whole lot less. Unfortunately, it is generally difficult to escape the long reach of the (tax) law; fortunately, however, there is one specific tax-reduction tool widely available to all U.S. taxpayers, namely, the Roth IRA and its kissing cousin, the Roth 401(k).

The sales pitch for a Roth IRA is compelling: Money is contributed to the account on an after-tax basis, meaning that people do not get a current income-tax deduction for the contribution. But once the money is invested, it can go into almost any investment activity you please (subject to the limitations imposed by the custodian of the account), and all income earned from those investment activities—whether interest, dividends, or capital gain—is excluded from current federal income tax (and typically state income tax) at both the IRA level and at the taxpayer level. Moreover, when it comes time to distribute funds from the Roth IRA in the future, these distributions are likewise fully exempt from federal (and usually state) income taxation. Thus, the Roth IRA allows taxpayers to enjoy a tax-free investment that earns a full market rate of return. All in all, a very sweet deal.

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Why Value, and Why Now?

After nearly a decade of outperformance for growth stocks, fueled by low inflation and near-zero interest rates, value stocks staged a comeback in 2022, outperforming by 20%.

Nearly halfway through 2023, growth leads value by more than 15% with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market up nearly 20%.

Why should investors maintain and possibly increase exposure to value?

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Harry Markowitz, Nobel-Winning Pioneer of Modern Portfolio Theory, Dies at 95

Harry M. Markowitz, an economist who launched a revolution in finance, upending traditional thinking about buying stocks and earning the Nobel in economic science in 1990 for his breakthrough, died on Thursday in San Diego. He was 95.

The death, at a hospital, was caused by pneumonia and sepsis, MaryMcDonald, a longtime assistant to Dr. Markowitz, said.

Until Dr. Markowitz came along, the investment world assumed that the best stock-market strategy was simply to choose the shares of a group of companies that were thought to have the best prospects.

But in 1952, he published his dissertation, “Portfolio Selection,” which overturned this common sense approach with what became known as modern portfolio theory, widely referred to as M.P.T.

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Apple versus the world: The iPhone maker is bigger than almost any stock market in the world

Dimensional’s Matrix Book is an annual review of global returns that highlight the power of compound investing. It’s a fascinating document: you can look up the compounded growth rate of the S&P 500 for every year going back to 1926.

Buried on page 74 is a chapter on “World Equity Market Capitalization,” listing the market capitalization of most of the world, country by country. No surprise, the U.S. is the global leader in stock market value. The $40 trillion in stock market wealth in the U.S. is almost 60% of the value of all the equities in the world.

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Comparing the Speed of Interest Rate Hikes (1988-2023)

 

Comparing the Speed of U.S. Interest Rate Hikes

After the latest rate hike on May 3rd, U.S. interest rates have reached levels not seen since 2007. The Federal Reserve has been aggressive with its interest rate hikes as it tries to combat sticky inflation. In fact, rates have risen nearly five percentage points (p.p.) in just 14 months.

In this graphic, we compare both the speed and severity of current interest rate hikes to other periods of monetary tightening over the past 35 years.

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